The India Meteorological Department said El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to intensify during the 2026 southwest monsoon season [1].
This forecast is critical because El Nino typically weakens the Indian southwest monsoon, which can lead to reduced rainfall and impact agricultural productivity across the region [3].
According to the India Meteorological Department, El Nino conditions are currently present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean [2]. The agency stated that these conditions are expected to strengthen further as the monsoon season progresses [2].
Officials noted that the predictions are based on specific technical modeling. "Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate a further strengthening of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season," the India Meteorological Department said [1].
The weather office officially confirmed the arrival of El Nino on June 12, 2026 [2]. This confirmation serves as a warning that the atmospheric responses triggered by warming sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific may amplify the El Nino effect [3].
Such patterns often correlate with increased risks of dry spells and heatwaves [3]. The IMD is monitoring the situation to determine the extent to which these Pacific conditions will disrupt the typical moisture flow into the Indian subcontinent during the 2026 season [1].
“"El Nino conditions are currently present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further during the southwest monsoon season"”
The intensification of El Nino during a monsoon year creates a high risk of precipitation deficits in India. Because the Indian economy relies heavily on the southwest monsoon for crop irrigation, a strengthened El Nino can trigger widespread drought and food price inflation, necessitating early government intervention in water management and agricultural planning.
