The India Meteorological Department reduced its 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall outlook to 90% of the long-period average [1].
This downward revision is critical because India relies heavily on the June-September monsoon for agriculture and water security. A significant deficit in rainfall can lead to crop failures and widespread water shortages across the country.
The revised outlook, issued on Friday, June 7, 2024, represents the lowest forecast the agency has ever issued [1, 2]. This is a decrease from the previous forecast issued in April, which projected rainfall at 92% of the average [1].
Meteorologists said there is a 60% probability that rainfall will fall below the 90% threshold, a level classified as deficient [1, 3]. Some reports describe this outlook as the driest monsoon forecast in a decade [4].
The agency said the revision reflects weakening monsoon conditions and a heightened influence from El Niño. These atmospheric patterns are expected to increase the risk of heatwaves and a general rainfall deficit [2, 3].
The IMD's projections cover the southwest monsoon season spanning from June to September 2026 [1, 4]. The agency said the combination of heatwaves and deficient rain could lead to drought conditions in various regions [2, 3].
“The India Meteorological Department reduced its 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall outlook to 90% of the long-period average.”
The record-low forecast signals a potential crisis for India's agrarian economy. Because the southwest monsoon provides the bulk of the country's annual water supply, a 60% chance of deficient rainfall combined with El Niño-induced heatwaves could severely impact crop yields and exacerbate water scarcity in urban and rural areas.
