The India Meteorological Department reduced its 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall estimate to 90% of the 50-year average on Friday [1].

This revision marks the lowest forecast ever issued by the agency. Because the monsoon is critical for agriculture and water security, a deficit of this magnitude threatens crop yields and increases the risk of widespread water shortages across the country.

The revised outlook comes after a previous estimate in April placed the expected rainfall at 92% of the average [2]. The current downgrade is attributed to strengthening El Niño conditions and associated higher temperatures [3]. These atmospheric patterns are expected to suppress monsoon rainfall and raise the likelihood of severe heatwaves and drought [3].

According to the agency, there is a 60% chance of deficient rain and drought during the 2026 monsoon season [4]. The India Meteorological Department also said that the region may face a combination of heavy rain and thunderstorms in some areas, even as the overall seasonal volume remains low [5].

Meteorologists said that the warming trend associated with El Niño often disrupts the moisture flow required for a standard monsoon. This volatility creates a precarious environment for farmers who rely on predictable rainfall cycles to sustain the nation's food supply, a vulnerability exacerbated by the current lowest-ever forecast [1].

The agency continues to monitor the atmospheric conditions as the southwest monsoon advances across the region [5].

“The India Meteorological Department reduced its 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall estimate to 90% of the 50-year average”

A record-low monsoon forecast suggests a high probability of agricultural stress in India, where a significant portion of the economy depends on rain-fed farming. The intersection of El Niño-induced heatwaves and deficient rainfall could lead to food inflation and increased pressure on government irrigation and disaster management resources.