India's 2026 southwest monsoon has begun with rainfall levels significantly below average, leaving regions like Delhi and the National Capital Region awaiting rain.
This deficit threatens agricultural productivity and water security across the northern plains. Because the monsoon is the primary source of water for India's crops, a weak start can lead to widespread drought and economic instability for farming communities.
Dr. Naresh Kumar, a senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said the rainfall levels are around 43% below average [1]. Other reports indicate the monsoon start is almost 40% short of normal [2]. These figures mark one of the most challenging starts to a season in recent history, with some forecasts suggesting this could be the lowest rainfall in 11 years [4].
While the monsoon has already entered Bihar [5], the delay in the northern plains is attributed to a developing El Niño event. This climate pattern is expected to suppress moisture transport, which leads to a weaker-than-usual monsoon across central and northern India [3, 4].
The impact of El Niño often manifests as reduced precipitation and higher temperatures. This suppresses the typical moisture flow from the ocean to the land, a critical mechanism for the seasonal rains that sustain the region's ecology and economy.
Weather officials have been monitoring the trend since April 2026, when early indicators suggested a weaker season [3]. By late May, the weather office said India was expected to have below-average monsoon rains for the 2026 cycle [4].
“Rainfall levels are around 43% below average”
The significant rainfall deficit at the start of the 2026 monsoon suggests a high risk of crop failure and water shortages in northern India. Because El Niño typically suppresses the moisture required for the southwest monsoon, the delayed onset in the Delhi-NCR region may signal a prolonged dry spell that could strain the national food supply and increase reliance on groundwater reserves.
