The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast that monsoon rainfall will be below normal across India during August and September 2024 [1].
This projection raises significant concerns for crop security and water management across the subcontinent. Because the southwest monsoon is the primary water source for Indian agriculture, a deficit in late-season rain can jeopardize harvest yields and rural economic stability.
Meteorologists said that strengthening El Niño conditions are expected to weaken the southwest monsoon, which reduces overall rainfall [1, 3]. The IMD forecast August rainfall at 94% of the long-term average [2]. Furthermore, the total seasonal rainfall from June through September is projected at 90% of the Long-Period Average (LPA) [4].
These projections follow a period of relative stability. The IMD said that July 2024 rainfall was normal, which helped reduce the overall deficit before the current downturn [1].
Despite the national outlook, regional variations persist. Some areas are expected to defy the broader trend, specifically Telangana, which is likely to receive above-normal rainfall in August [5]. Similarly, parts of Himachal Pradesh, including the Lahaul-Spiti district and parts of Chamba, may see above-normal rain despite the nationwide deficit [6].
Agricultural experts and policymakers now face a challenging window to mitigate the impact of the predicted shortfall. The discrepancy between the national average and regional pockets of heavy rain suggests a volatile weather pattern for the remainder of the season.
“The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast that monsoon rainfall will be below normal across India during August and September 2024.”
The shift toward a below-normal monsoon indicates a potential clash between climate volatility and food security. While normal rainfall in July provided a temporary buffer, the projected 10% deficit in total seasonal rainfall could lead to water scarcity and reduced agricultural output, potentially driving up food prices in the region.
