The India Meteorological Department has issued weather alerts for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across Northeast India and the Delhi-NCR region [1].
These erratic weather shifts signal the transition toward the rainy season, which is critical for India's agriculture and water security. Unpredictable pre-monsoon patterns can lead to flash floods and infrastructure damage before the official season begins.
On May 8, 2024, the department issued rainfall alerts for Northeast India and thunderstorms for Delhi-NCR [1]. This marked the second consecutive day the agency provided pre-monsoon weather alerts [1]. The unpredictability of these patterns is attributed to the approaching southwest monsoon, which is creating volatile atmospheric conditions across different regions of the country [1, 2].
While the north and northeast experience early volatility, the official start of the rainy season is expected further south. The southwest monsoon is projected to set in over Kerala around June 4, 2024 [2]. This onset in Kerala typically marks the formal beginning of the monsoon's progression across the Indian subcontinent.
Meteorologists continue to monitor the shift in weather patterns as the system moves inland. The current volatility in Delhi-NCR and the northeast highlights the fragmented nature of the pre-monsoon phase, where some regions face extreme heat while others experience sudden, heavy precipitation [1, 2].
“The southwest monsoon is expected to set in over Kerala around June 4, 2024”
The gap between the pre-monsoon alerts in May and the official onset in Kerala in June illustrates the volatile transition period of the Indian climate. Because the southwest monsoon is the primary source of water for the region, any erratic behavior in its arrival or intensity can directly impact crop yields and urban drainage systems in densely populated areas like Delhi-NCR.
