The India Meteorological Department projects that the 2024 southwest monsoon will deliver about 90% [1] of the long-period average rainfall.
This forecast indicates a below-normal monsoon season, which could impact agricultural productivity and water security across the subcontinent. Because the southwest monsoon is the primary source of water for India's crops, a deficit in precipitation often leads to economic volatility in rural regions.
The IMD expects the rainfall deficit to persist from June through September 2024 [2]. The agency said weak El Niño conditions are expected to develop in June and strengthen during the second half of the season [3]. These atmospheric conditions typically suppress monsoon rainfall by altering wind patterns and moisture transport.
While the overall outlook is below normal, the impact will vary by region. The IMD said that the northeast region is expected to receive near-normal rainfall [4]. However, the southwest monsoon will cover most of the country, with the broader deficit likely felt across other states.
Weather officials said that the development of El Niño remains a primary driver for the revised forecast [3]. The agency previously held a higher expectation for the season but has now cut the forecast to 90% [3]. This adjustment reflects the current understanding of oceanic warming patterns that influence the Indian subcontinent's weather cycles.
“The 2024 southwest monsoon will deliver about 90% of the long-period average rainfall.”
A below-normal monsoon forecast typically triggers concerns for India's agrarian economy, as a significant portion of the country's farming relies on rain-fed irrigation. The emergence of El Niño conditions suggests a systemic shift in weather patterns that may lead to drought-like conditions in several states, potentially increasing food inflation and putting pressure on reservoir levels used for electricity and drinking water.
