India is expecting a below-normal monsoon for the June-September 2026 season, according to forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) [1, 2].
This outlook is critical because the monsoon provides the primary water source for India's massive agricultural sector. A significant deficit in rainfall typically leads to reduced crop yields, which can trigger food inflation, and strain national water security.
Meteorologists attribute the projected shortfall to El Niño conditions, which are expected to suppress monsoon activity [4, 5]. Reports on the severity of the forecast vary. Some analysts suggest this is the weakest monsoon forecast in three years [2], while other reports indicate the country may see the lowest rainfall in 11 years [3].
Regional impacts are expected to differ across the country. The northern, western, and central regions are projected to receive below-normal rainfall [4]. Conversely, the eastern and northeastern regions may see above-normal rainfall [4].
"The monsoon is likely to be below normal across most parts of the country, with the possibility of above-normal rains only in the east and northeast," a Skymet weather analyst said [4].
Economic concerns are mounting as the forecast suggests potential disruptions to the food supply chain. "India forecast an El Niño-weakened monsoon in 2026 that will bring the lowest rainfall in 11 years, fuelling concerns over crops and inflation," Rajendra Jadhav and Mayank Bhardwaj said [3].
The IMD is currently tracking weather patterns to manage the potential crisis. "We are closely monitoring the situation and will issue advisories as needed to mitigate the impact on agriculture and water resources," an official spokesperson for the IMD said [2].
“India is expecting a below-normal monsoon for the June-September 2026 season.”
The divergence in rainfall between the northeast and the rest of the country may create localized economic disparities. While eastern regions might avoid drought, the predicted deficit in the agricultural heartlands of the north and west could force the Indian government to implement emergency irrigation measures or adjust food import policies to stabilize prices.
