The India Meteorological Department lowered its 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall forecast to 90% [1] of the long-period average on Friday.
This revision signals a potential threat to agricultural productivity and food price stability in one of the world's largest farming economies. Because the monsoon provides critical irrigation for crops, a deficit often leads to higher food inflation and reduced rural income.
The current forecast of 90% [1] is a decrease from the April projection, which had estimated rainfall at 92% [2] of the normal average. This marks the first below-average monsoon season in three years [3]. Some reports indicate this could result in the lowest rainfall levels seen in 11 years [4].
Weather officials said the weakening of the monsoon was due to a strong El Niño pattern. Projections suggest 2026 will see the strongest El Niño in a decade [5], a climate phenomenon that typically suppresses rainfall across South Asia.
Economic pressures are compounding the environmental risks. The India Meteorological Department and other monitors said that higher agricultural input costs, linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, are increasing the vulnerability of the sector [6].
The convergence of a decade-strong El Niño [5] and geopolitical instability creates a precarious environment for farmers. Reduced rainfall during the critical sowing window can lead to systemic crop failures, further straining the national economy [6].
“The India Meteorological Department lowered its 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall forecast to 90% of the long-period average.”
The downward revision of the monsoon forecast creates a dual crisis for India's economy. By combining the physical risk of drought—driven by a severe El Niño—with the financial risk of inflated input costs from Middle East tensions, the government faces a heightened risk of food inflation. This may force policy shifts in crop management or import strategies to ensure food security.
