The India Meteorological Department lowered its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to 90% of the long-period average on Friday [1].
This reduction is critical because the monsoon serves as the primary water source for India's agricultural sector. A deficit in rainfall threatens crop yields, which can trigger food price inflation and impact the national economy.
The updated forecast represents a decrease from an earlier projection made in April, which estimated rainfall at 92% of the normal level [1]. This marks the first below-average monsoon season the country has faced in three years [2]. According to the agency, this period is expected to be the lowest rainfall seen in 11 years [3].
Weather officials said the weakened monsoon is due to the influence of El Niño [1]. The timing of the drought risk coincides with other economic pressures facing the agricultural community. Farmers are currently dealing with higher input costs driven by conflict in the Middle East [1].
Low rainfall levels typically lead to reduced harvests for staple crops. When combined with rising costs for seeds, and fertilizers, the agricultural sector faces a dual crisis of productivity and affordability [3]. The IMD continues to monitor atmospheric patterns to determine if further adjustments to the outlook are necessary.
“The first below-average monsoon season in three years.”
The downward revision of the monsoon forecast signals a potential volatility spike in global food markets. Because India is a major exporter of agricultural products, a significant drop in crop yields—compounded by geopolitical instability in the Middle East—could drive up international food prices and increase domestic inflation within India.
