The India Meteorological Department lowered its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to approximately 90% of the long-period average on Friday [1].
This adjustment signals a below-average season that threatens the nation's agricultural output. Because the monsoon is critical for irrigation and crop health, a deficit could trigger food shortages and drive up inflation across the region [1, 4].
The revised outlook is a decrease from the April forecast, which had projected rainfall at 92% of normal [4]. Some reports suggest this could result in the lowest rainfall seen in 11 years [3]. Other data indicates it would be the first below-average monsoon season in three years [2].
Meteorologists attribute the weakening rains to an expected El Niño weather pattern [5]. This atmospheric phenomenon typically suppresses rainfall in the region, creating a volatile environment for farmers who rely on predictable seasonal cycles [5].
The weather risk coincides with economic pressures on the agricultural sector. Farmers are already facing higher input costs linked to the Middle East conflict [1]. The combination of expensive supplies and diminished water resources increases the vulnerability of the current planting cycle [1].
Agricultural officials are monitoring the situation as the southwest monsoon region prepares for the season. The gap between the previous forecast and the current 90% estimate highlights the increasing unpredictability of the regional climate [1, 2].
“The India Meteorological Department lowered its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to approximately 90% of the long-period average”
A below-average monsoon in India often leads to a ripple effect in global commodities markets. When rainfall drops, crop yields for staples like rice and wheat typically decline, which can force the Indian government to restrict exports to ensure domestic food security. Combined with the rising cost of fertilizers and fuel due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East, this forecast suggests a period of heightened food price volatility.
