The southwest monsoon advance has stalled, leaving June rainfall well below normal across several Indian states [1].
This delay threatens agricultural productivity and water security in regions that rely heavily on seasonal rains for crop irrigation and reservoir replenishment.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that June rainfall has seen a deficit of 32% [1]. However, data for the period between June 4 and June 15 indicates a more severe overall deficit of 64% [6]. During that specific window, the region received 19.2 mm of rain compared to a normal of 53.7 mm [7].
Western and central regions are experiencing the most acute shortages. Maharashtra and Gujarat are both facing rainfall shortfalls of more than 70% [2, 3]. Some reports specify the deficit in Maharashtra at 72% [4]. Meanwhile, central India is grappling with a 65% rainfall deficit [5].
Atmospheric conditions have suppressed the progression of the monsoon. The IMD said a disrupted westerly jet stream and the risk of El Niño are primary drivers for the slowdown [8]. These factors have combined to stall the typical advance of the weather system across the subcontinent.
Residents of Mumbai continue to wait for significant precipitation. The IMD said heavy rains over the city are now expected only after June 25 [8].
“Maharashtra and Gujarat are both facing rainfall shortfalls of more than 70%.”
The stalling of the southwest monsoon suggests a volatile start to the 2026 agricultural cycle. Because a significant portion of India's farming is rain-fed, a 70% shortfall in key states like Maharashtra and Gujarat could lead to reduced crop yields and increased food inflation. The influence of El Niño and jet stream disruptions indicates that the seasonal pattern is deviating from historical norms, potentially extending the drought-like conditions into the early summer.
