A severe El Niño and rising freight costs are expected to reduce India's pulse production and tighten the import market.
This shift threatens food security and price stability for a primary protein source in the Indian diet. Lower domestic yields typically force the government to increase imports to prevent price spikes for consumers.
Shyam Narsaria of the International Pulse Programme and the Overseas Agro Trade Association said that fragile soil moisture and weather patterns are creating a volatile environment for growers. The current El Niño cycle is expected to depress monsoon rainfall, which directly impacts the moisture levels required for pulse crops to thrive.
Projections for 2026 indicate that monsoon rainfall will be approximately 94% of the long-period average, with an error margin of ±5% [1]. Such a deficit can lead to stunted crop growth and lower overall harvests in pulse-growing regions.
Logistical challenges are compounding the agricultural risks. Narsaria said that higher freight rates are increasing the cost of bringing in pulses from abroad. India relies heavily on imports from Myanmar to fill production gaps, but these shipments are becoming more expensive to transport.
Market participants are reacting to the instability by reducing their risk exposure. Millers have reduced pulse inventory holdings from roughly three months of stock to only a few days [2]. This drastic reduction in stockpiles leaves the supply chain vulnerable to sudden disruptions, meaning any further dip in production could lead to immediate shortages.
The combination of weather-driven crop failure and shipping inflation creates a dual pressure point for the Indian agricultural sector. While the government often intervenes to manage imports, the rising cost of freight may limit the effectiveness of these measures.
“Monsoon rainfall in 2026 is projected to be about 94% of the long-period average.”
The convergence of climate-driven production deficits and logistical inflation suggests a period of high volatility for Indian pulse prices. By slashing inventories, millers are avoiding the risk of holding expensive stock during a price drop, but they have simultaneously removed the buffer that protects the market from sudden shortages. If the projected rainfall deficit materializes, India will face an urgent need for imports at a time when the cost of shipping makes those imports significantly more expensive.
