Republican strategist John Jordan said Iran's future actions in the Middle East will be driven by the country's internal political dynamics.
This assessment highlights a potential shift in regional stability, as the focus moves from the well-known Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to the regular Iranian military, known as the Artesh.
Jordan said to Sky News Australia that the Artesh is a critical force to monitor because it operates independently of the IRGC. He said that the regular military possesses a significant numerical advantage over the guards, outnumbering the IRGC by approximately 2.5 to 1 [1].
"The group that I would be paying attention to right now is the regular military, the Artesh," Jordan said.
According to Jordan, the regular army has remained relatively quiet during recent tensions, but its eventual involvement could change the trajectory of a regional showdown. He said that the decision to deploy or activate this force will depend on the evolving political situation within Iran.
"They have been pretty quiet; they have a decision to make," Jordan said. "This is all going to be decided … based on internal Iranian politics."
Because the Artesh is not part of the IRGC structure, its alignment or neutrality during a crisis could either escalate the conflict or provide a different internal lever for the Iranian government to manage its foreign policy [1].
“The group that I would be paying attention to right now is the regular military, the Artesh.”
The distinction between the IRGC and the Artesh is a critical fault line in Iranian power dynamics. While the IRGC is the ideological arm of the regime with significant regional proxy influence, the Artesh is the traditional national military. A shift in the balance of power or a decision by the Artesh to engage in regional conflict would represent a significant escalation beyond the typical activities of the IRGC.
