Analysts are debating whether the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or civilian political leaders currently drive Iran's key strategic decisions [1].
This power struggle is critical because control over military actions and foreign policy determines how Iran manages its regional conflict and seeks sanctions relief [3, 4]. The tension has intensified since the U.S. and Israel launched opening strikes in early 2024 [1, 4].
The debate centers on who directs the war with Israel and manages negotiations with the U.S. [1, 2]. Some analysts said the IRGC has emerged as the primary decision-maker in Iran's foreign policy and war strategy [3]. This perspective views the military wing as the hidden winner in the competition for influence within Tehran's power corridors [3].
Other observers said the balance of power remains open [1]. According to this view, elected officials and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei still play a decisive role in steering the nation [1]. This suggests a more fragmented or shared leadership structure rather than a total takeover by the military [1].
Reports on this internal dynamic continued through March 4, 2026 [4]. The struggle for control involves the IRGC and the broader political leadership, including the Supreme Leader, and elected officials [1, 2]. The outcome of this internal friction will likely shape the trajectory of the conflict in the Middle East [3, 4].
“The IRGC is the hidden winner and primary decision-maker in Iran’s foreign-policy and war strategy.”
The uncertainty regarding Iran's chain of command complicates diplomatic efforts with the West. If the IRGC holds the primary lever of power, negotiations may prioritize military leverage over economic concessions. Conversely, if civilian politicians and the Supreme Leader maintain control, there may be more flexibility for a diplomatic resolution to sanctions and regional hostilities.
