Svein Tore Holseth, chief executive of fertilizer company Yara International, said that the Iran-Israel war could put 10 billion meals a week at risk [1].
This disruption threatens global food security by choking the supply of essential crop nutrients. A shortage of fertilizer leads to lower crop yields, which can trigger spikes in food prices and increase instability in regions already facing hunger.
The crisis stems from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for fertilizer exports [2]. This blockade has created what analysts describe as a severe "fertilizer squeeze" that prevents necessary supplies from reaching agricultural markets [3].
Holseth said, "The war puts 10 billion meals a week at risk" [1].
The impact is expected to be felt most acutely in the Global South. A spokesperson for the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said that fertilizer shortages due to the Iran war are a pressing concern for developing countries [4]. This concern was highlighted in reports as early as April 14, 2024 [4].
Agricultural productivity relies on the steady flow of these chemicals to maintain soil health and maximize harvest volumes. Without access to the Strait of Hormuz, the global supply chain for these materials remains fractured, leaving farmers unable to secure the inputs needed for the planting season.
Holseth and international agencies said that the intersection of geopolitical conflict and agricultural logistics creates a vulnerability that extends far beyond the immediate combatants. The disruption of a single shipping corridor can translate into a caloric deficit for millions of people worldwide.
“The war puts 10 billion meals a week at risk.”
The situation highlights the fragility of the global food supply chain, where a localized geopolitical conflict in a strategic maritime chokepoint can create a systemic shock. Because modern industrial agriculture depends on concentrated sources of fertiliser, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz transforms a regional war into a global humanitarian risk, potentially exacerbating food insecurity in developing nations that lack the capital to source alternatives.
