H. A. Hellyer said there is a significant mismatch between the expectations of Iran, the U.S., and Gulf Arab states regarding their security situation [1].
This discrepancy is critical because the Gulf states remain geographically and strategically exposed to the outcomes of the confrontation between Washington and Tehran. While the U.S. and Iran negotiate or clash over regional influence, the smaller Arab nations must manage the immediate physical and political consequences.
Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, said these divergent goals during an interview with France 24 [1]. He said that the lack of alignment extends beyond the primary antagonists in the region.
"There is a very huge mismatch not just between the expectations of the Iranians and the Americans, but also among Gulf Arab states which will have to live with whatever mess is left after this," Hellyer said [1].
The analyst said that the strategic goals of the involved parties are not only different but often contradictory. This gap in expectations complicates diplomatic efforts to stabilize the region, a process that often ignores the long-term stability of the Gulf states.
According to Hellyer, the Gulf Arab states are positioned as the parties that will ultimately inherit the remnants of the U.S.-Iran security struggle [1]. This dynamic suggests that regional security agreements may be fragile if they do not account for the specific needs of these states.
“There is a very huge mismatch not just between the expectations of the Iranians and the Americans”
The analysis suggests that the geopolitical stability of the Middle East is hindered by a 'triangular' disconnect. If the U.S. and Iran pursue security guarantees that prioritize their own strategic interests over regional stability, the Gulf states may find themselves in a precarious security vacuum, regardless of whether the final outcome is a diplomatic deal or a continued confrontation.
