Iranian state television reported that a draft peace deal with the U.S. would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping [1].
The agreement would resolve a critical maritime bottleneck that carries a large share of global oil shipments, potentially stabilizing international energy markets [1, 2].
According to the reports, a draft memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington calls for the end of the U.S. naval blockade [2]. The deal stipulates that commercial shipping through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman would return to pre-war levels within one month [1] of the agreement's implementation.
"Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will return to pre‑war levels within a month if the United States fulfills several conditions," Iranian state television said [1].
Global markets reacted to the news. Oil prices fell to $89 per barrel [3] following the report that a peace deal could restore shipping access within the one-month timeframe [3].
While state media presented the draft as a viable path toward peace, other reports indicate significant tension remains. An ABC News correspondent said the draft memorandum focuses on the end of the blockade and the reopening of the strait [2]. However, some reports suggest the IRGC has warned that forces are waiting if combat restarts, which casts doubt on the immediacy of a final agreement [2].
The draft deal ties the resumption of shipping to the U.S. lifting its naval blockade and meeting several other conditions outlined by Tehran [1, 2].
“Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will return to pre‑war levels within a month if the United States fulfills several conditions”
The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz represents a significant shift in the geopolitical risk profile for global energy. Because the waterway is a primary artery for oil exports, any formal agreement to lift the U.S. naval blockade would likely reduce the 'risk premium' currently baked into crude oil prices. However, the contradiction between the diplomatic draft and the warnings from the IRGC suggests that the deal remains fragile and contingent on strict adherence to Tehran's conditions.
