Fertilizer shortages caused by the Iran war have increased UK farm input costs by up to 70% [1].
These disruptions threaten the global food supply chain by limiting the availability of nitrogen-based fertilizers. Because these inputs are essential for crop yields, the shortage is expected to cause a dramatic rise in global food prices next year [1, 2].
The crisis stems from the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, which has blocked exports of natural gas [3]. Natural gas serves as a key feedstock for the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers. Without a steady flow of this resource, manufacturers cannot maintain previous production levels, leading to scarcity in international markets.
Mark Preston, executive trustee of the Grosvenor Group, said fertilizer “was already quite expensive” before the war [1]. The current geopolitical instability has compounded existing financial pressures on farmers, particularly in the United Kingdom. This trend is not limited to Europe; reports indicate that fertilizer shortages are also threatening smallholders in Malaysia and affecting markets in Vietnam [2, 4].
The scale of the potential crisis is significant. The head of the fertilizer company Yara said the war puts billions of meals at risk by tightening fertilizer supplies [5]. While farmers are already feeling the financial squeeze this year, the most severe impact on consumer food prices is projected for 2027 [1, 2].
Efforts to mitigate the impact are underway in some regions. In Malaysia, some producers are exploring organic alternatives as a potential solution to the lack of traditional chemical fertilizers [4]. However, the global reliance on natural gas-derived nitrogen makes a full-scale transition difficult in the short term.
“UK farm input costs have risen by up to 70% [1].”
The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz transforms a regional military conflict into a global humanitarian risk. By choking the supply of natural gas, the war creates a bottleneck in nitrogen production that cannot be quickly bypassed. This suggests that global food inflation in 2027 will be driven not by demand or local crop failure, but by the systemic failure of the industrial agricultural supply chain.
