More than 80% [1] of global operations linked to the Islamic State (ISIS) are now concentrated in West Africa and the Sahel.
This shift indicates a strategic pivot by the extremist group, moving its primary theater of activity away from its original strongholds toward regions with different security vulnerabilities. The concentration of resources in these areas suggests that the group views the Sahel as its most viable path for growth and operational success.
The Foundation for Peace Professionals said "more than 80 per cent of global operations linked to the extremist group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria are now concentrated in West Africa and the Sahel" [1]. This trend positions the region as the new epicenter of the group's global terrorism network.
Activity is particularly concentrated in the Lake Chad Basin and Nigeria [2]. Analysts said the shift reflects a strategic focus on the region, where instability and porous borders may facilitate the group's movement and recruitment.
U.S. officials have previously warned that ISIS is moving its operations toward West Africa [3]. The current data underscores the scale of this migration, showing that the vast majority of the group's active efforts are now focused on this geographic corridor.
The regional focus includes a variety of tactics designed to destabilize local governments and establish territorial control. By centering its operations in the Sahel, the group can leverage existing local conflicts to expand its influence, a strategy that has seen similar patterns in other global regions in the past.
“More than 80% of global operations linked to the Islamic State (ISIS) are now concentrated in West Africa and the Sahel.”
The migration of ISIS operations to West Africa and the Sahel represents a fundamental change in the group's global geography. By concentrating over 80% of its activity in this region, the group is exploiting governance gaps and security vacuums in the Lake Chad Basin. This shift forces international counter-terrorism efforts to pivot their resources and intelligence gathering toward the Sahel to prevent the establishment of a permanent, large-scale caliphate in Africa.
