The Japan Meteorological Agency said that the El Niño phenomenon began this spring, signaling a period of potential extreme weather for the country [1].
This development is critical because the current atmospheric conditions deviate from historical patterns. While El Niño traditionally correlates with cooler Japanese summers, officials said this year is expected to bring nationwide high temperatures and potentially longer-lasting typhoons [1], [2].
The agency said that the probability of El Niño occurring during the summer of 2026 has risen to 90% [4]. This event follows a previous El Niño episode that occurred approximately two years ago [1].
El Niño is characterized by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, stretching from the coast of Peru to the central Pacific [2]. These anomalies alter atmospheric circulation by strengthening the Pacific high and creating a northward westerly flow, which directly affects Japan's weather patterns [2].
Meteorologists said that the current situation may mirror the summer of 2023, which was the second hottest on record in Japan [1]. This shift suggests that climate change is amplifying temperature impacts, overriding the traditional cooling effect usually associated with El Niño [2].
Typical El Niño episodes last about one year [1]. However, the interaction between these oceanic cycles and global warming is creating more volatile outcomes for the region [2].
"Nationwide high temperature trends are expected," the agency said [2].
“The probability of El Niño occurring during the summer of 2026 has risen to 90%.”
The contradiction between traditional El Niño cooling and the projected heat for 2026 highlights the increasing influence of global warming on established climate cycles. By overriding historical norms, these shifts make seasonal forecasting more difficult and increase the risk of extreme heatwaves and intensified storm activity in East Asia.
