Economist Jeffrey Sachs said the United States cannot win a military conflict in Iran during a recent interview with CNBC TV18 [1].
Sachs' analysis suggests a shift in global power dynamics where traditional Western military dominance is challenged by regional realities and emerging economic hubs. This perspective arrives as India navigates its relationship with both the U.S. and China amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
Sachs said the U.S. lacks the capability to achieve a decisive military victory in Iran [1]. He framed this limitation as part of a broader trend in the shifting global order, where military intervention does not guarantee political outcomes.
Regarding the relationship between Washington and New Delhi, Sachs said President Trump needs India more than India needs the U.S. [1]. This assertion positions India as a critical partner for the U.S. administration, granting New Delhi significant leverage in bilateral negotiations, and strategic agreements.
Sachs said India should avoid choosing sides in the ongoing rivalry between the U.S. and China [1]. By maintaining a non-aligned stance, he said India can preserve its strategic autonomy and maximize its influence as a global power.
However, India's actual policy trajectory remains a point of contention among analysts. Some observers suggest that India's initial silence on the Iran conflict, followed by an alignment with Washington, indicates a tilt toward the U.S. [2]. Other analysts maintain that India will likely stick to its traditional preference for strategic autonomy regardless of summit diplomacy involving Washington, Beijing, and Moscow [3].
Sachs said India's strategic power is rooted in its ability to remain independent of the binary choice between the two superpowers [1]. He suggested that this independence is the most effective way for India to secure its own national interests in a multipolar world.
“The United States cannot win a military conflict in Iran.”
Sachs' assessment highlights a growing school of thought that views the U.S. as having diminished unilateral influence in the Middle East and Asia. If India successfully leverages its 'strategic autonomy,' it could redefine the role of middle powers in global diplomacy, moving away from the Cold War-era model of bloc alignment toward a more transactional, multi-vector foreign policy.
