Exit poll data from Today's Chanakya projects a close contest in the Kerala Assembly election with the United Democratic Front (UDF) holding a slight lead.

These projections are critical as they indicate the potential for a hung assembly in a state historically dominated by two major coalitions. The results suggest a narrow margin between the UDF and the Left Democratic Front (LDF), which could complicate the formation of a stable government.

According to data released late April [1], the UDF is projected to secure a vote share of 40% ±3% [1]. This translates to an estimated 69 ±9 seats [1]. The LDF follows closely with a projected vote share of 38% ±3% [1], which corresponds to 64 ±9 seats [1].

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to capture 20% ±3% of the vote share [1]. However, this support does not translate into a high seat count, with the alliance projected to win seven ±4 seats [1]. Other parties are expected to receive a two% ±1% vote share [1] and zero ±1 seats [1].

Reporting on the projections has varied across news outlets. India Today said that the UDF is gaining a clear edge over the LDF [2]. In contrast, the Financial Express said that some pollsters predict an LDF lead while keeping the UDF in contention [1]. The India Tribune said the projection is a tight race [3].

These figures were released on April 29 and 30 [4, 5], following the conclusion of the voting process. The data reflects voter responses collected by Today's Chanakya to forecast the likely outcome of the legislative race.

“The UDF is projected to secure a vote share of 40% ±3%.”

The narrow gap between the UDF and LDF projections suggests that neither coalition may achieve an absolute majority. If these projections hold, the outcome could lead to a hung assembly, increasing the political leverage of smaller parties or requiring complex coalition negotiations to form a government.