Exit polls project the United Democratic Front (UDF) will win between 75 and 90 seats in Kerala's 140-seat assembly [1].
These projections suggest a significant shift in regional power dynamics, marking a potential return to governance for the Congress-led alliance after a decade of opposition.
In Kerala, the UDF is expected to secure a majority in the assembly, which consists of 140 total seats [1]. The projections indicate the UDF could win between 75 and 90 seats [1]. Conversely, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is projected to see a decline, with estimates placing their seat count between 49 and 62 [1].
Analysts said this projected shift is due to a strong anti-incumbency swing against the LDF. This trend is expected to benefit the UDF as voters seek a change in leadership after 10 years of LDF rule [2].
Meanwhile, the political landscape in Assam shows a different trend. Exit polls project that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will secure a third consecutive term in the state [2]. The NDA's projected success is underpinned by continued popularity within Assam [2].
The official results for the Kerala election are scheduled for release on May 4, 2026 [2]. These early May projections provide a preliminary look at the electoral mood across two distinct Indian states, with one seeing a potential change in guard and the other maintaining the status quo.
“the UDF is expected to secure a majority in the assembly, which consists of 140 total seats”
The divergence between the results in Kerala and Assam highlights the localized nature of Indian state elections. While the NDA maintains a stronghold in the northeast, the projected UDF victory in Kerala suggests that anti-incumbency remains a potent force in the south, potentially disrupting the LDF's long-term dominance in the region.
