The India Meteorological Department (IMD) now expects the southwest monsoon to arrive in Kerala by June 3, 2026 [1].
This delay impacts agricultural planning and water management in southwestern India, as the monsoon is the primary source of water for the region's crops and reservoirs.
The official onset was originally forecast for May 26, 2026 [4]. However, the IMD has pushed this date back due to atmospheric conditions and a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal [2]. While the official onset is expected early next week, meteorologists said that rainfall is likely to pick up significantly after June 11, 2026 [2].
Several disruptive weather systems are contributing to the delay. A typhoon, a cyclonic circulation, and a Bay of Bengal cyclone are currently weakening the flow of moisture into Kerala [3]. The MSN Meteorology Team said the arrival may be delayed as weather systems over the Pacific and Arabian Sea disrupt moisture flow [3].
"There are two factors that are likely to cause a delay or a weak monsoon onset over Kerala - a typhoon and a cyclonic circulation," the MSN Weather Desk said [3].
Local authorities had previously placed the state under a yellow alert until May 28, 2026 [3]. The current shift in timing suggests a slower start to the rainy season than initially anticipated by officials.
"Southwest Monsoon in Kerala is delayed and now expected by June 3, according to the IMD, due to atmospheric conditions and a Bay of Bengal cyclone," The Week editorial staff said [1].
“The official onset was originally forecast for May 26, 2026.”
The delay of the southwest monsoon indicates a volatile atmospheric environment where distant weather systems, such as Pacific typhoons, are influencing regional Indian precipitation. A delayed onset can lead to water scarcity for early-season sowing, potentially shifting the agricultural calendar for farmers in Kerala and neighboring states.
