President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in a first-round presidential scenario, according to a BTG/Nexus poll [1].
The results highlight the enduring polarization of the Brazilian electorate as the country looks toward future presidential contests. The data suggests that while the incumbent maintains a lead, the Bolsonaro camp remains a formidable challenger in a head-to-head matchup.
The poll said that Lula holds 47% voting intention in a first-round scenario [1]. In the same scenario, Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 43% [1]. However, reports on these figures vary; some sources describe this gap as a lead, while others characterize the first-round result as a technical tie [2].
In a second-round scenario, the gap closes further. The survey said there is a technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, meaning the difference between the two candidates is statistically indistinguishable within the margin of error [2].
The BTG/Nexus poll relied on a sample size of 2,028 respondents [3]. Fieldwork for the survey was conducted from April 24 to April 26, 2024 [3]. The results were released on April 25, 2024 [3].
These findings contrast with other circulating figures. A Reuters fact-check said that claims of Lula holding 52% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 17% are unfounded and not supported by the poll data [2].
The survey aimed to gauge voter preferences and assess the level of division between the current administration and the political movement associated with the former president.
“Lula holds a 47% voting intention in a first-round scenario”
The data suggests that Brazilian politics remains deeply split between two primary ideological blocs. The technical tie in a second-round scenario indicates that neither candidate has a definitive mandate over the other, suggesting that the 2026 election will likely be decided by a small margin of undecided or swing voters.
