President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in first-round vote intentions, according to a new poll.

The results provide an early glimpse into the 2026 presidential race, highlighting the enduring polarization between the current administration and the political movement led by the Bolsonaro family.

The Real Time Big Data poll was conducted between May 2 and May 4, 2026 [1]. The survey included 2,000 respondents across Brazil [2]. According to the data, Lula remains ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in all simulated first-round scenarios [3].

The poll carries a margin of error of ±2 percentage points [2]. While Lula maintains a lead in the initial round, other simulations suggest the gap narrows significantly in a second-round matchup, where the two candidates appear to be in a deadlock [3].

Political analysts said that the consolidation of these two figures as the primary contenders suggests a repeat of the ideological divide seen in previous election cycles. The survey reflects a nationwide snapshot of voter sentiment as the country moves toward the official election period.

Lula's lead in the first round suggests a strong base of support among current voters, a factor that typically provides momentum for the incumbent. However, the competitive nature of the second-round simulations indicates that Flávio Bolsonaro has successfully consolidated a significant portion of the opposition vote [3].

“Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round vote intentions according to a new poll.”

The data indicates a highly polarized electorate where the two leading candidates have established firm, opposing blocs. While the incumbent holds an early advantage in the first round, the statistical tie in second-round simulations suggests that the 2026 election will likely be decided by a small margin of undecided voters or the ability of either candidate to expand their coalition beyond their core base.