President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in first-round presidential scenarios according to a Futura/Apex opinion poll [1].
The results provide an early glimpse into the competitive landscape for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. With the Bolsonaro family remaining a central force in right-wing politics, the data suggests a polarized electorate as the country prepares for another high-stakes contest.
In the leading first-round scenario, Lula holds a 40.1% share of voter intentions [1]. Flávio Bolsonaro follows in second place with 36.8% [1]. While some reports have characterized the race as a tie in the first round, other data indicates Lula maintains an advantage across all first-round scenarios [2, 3].
The polling also examined a potential second-round runoff between the two candidates. In that specific head-to-head matchup, Lula holds 48.1% of the intention share [4].
These figures reflect the enduring divide in Brazilian politics between the Workers' Party and the Liberal Party. The poll was originally released on June 16, 2024, and reported through various outlets on June 22, 2024 [2, 3].
Because the poll focuses on the 2026 cycle, it captures voter sentiment long before the official campaign period begins. The narrow gap between the two frontrunners highlights the volatility of voter preference in a national electorate that remains deeply split along ideological lines.
“Lula holds a 40.1% share of voter intentions in the leading first-round scenario.”
The poll indicates that while Lula retains a lead, the Bolsonaro brand remains potent through Flávio Bolsonaro. The close margins suggest that neither side has a definitive mandate, and the eventual outcome will likely depend on the ability of either candidate to capture a small sliver of undecided centrist voters in a highly polarized environment.
