President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) are tied at 45% in a hypothetical second-round presidential election [1].
The result signals a deeply polarized electorate as Brazil approaches the 2026 elections. This parity suggests that neither candidate has secured a dominant lead, leaving the race open to shifts caused by new scandals or political alliances.
The Datafolha poll, released on April 16, 2026 [3], indicates a technical tie between the two figures, with each candidate holding 45% of voting intentions [1]. The survey reflects the national mood before the public release of audio recordings involving the son of Flávio Bolsonaro and former banker Daniel Vorcaro.
President Lula acknowledged the results of the survey. "The Datafolha poll indicated a technical tie with Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round," Lula said [2].
Vice President Geraldo Alckmin also addressed the findings, noting that the Datafolha survey showed both candidates at 45% [1]. When asked about the current standing of the administration's candidate, Alckmin said, "It will improve" [3].
While the national headline shows a tie, some reports suggest a different breakdown among specific demographics. Data from DGABC indicates that Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro among voters who identify as center, though this contrasts with the overall national tie reported by G1 — Globo [1].
Rejection rates for the candidates remain nearly identical. According to MSN Brasil, Lula faces a 46% rejection rate, while Flávio Bolsonaro faces a 45% rejection rate [1]. These figures mirror the narrow gap in support, illustrating a divided public that is almost equally split in its opposition to both primary contenders.
“A technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, each with 45% of the intentions of vote.”
The statistical deadlock highlights a persistent ideological divide in Brazil. Because the poll was conducted prior to the leak of damaging audio recordings involving the Bolsonaro family, the current 45% support for Flávio Bolsonaro may serve as a baseline to measure the political fallout of those revelations. The narrow gap in both support and rejection rates suggests that the 2026 election will likely be decided by a small margin of undecided or centrist voters.
