President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in recent nationwide voter intention polls for the presidential election [1, 2].
These figures indicate the current strength of the incumbent administration against the challenge posed by the Bolsonaro family, highlighting a polarized electorate as the campaign progresses.
A Datafolha poll released on June 23 showed Lula with 40% of voting intentions in the first round, while Flávio Bolsonaro held 32% [2]. In a hypothetical second-round runoff, the gap remains, with Lula at 48% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 43% [2].
Demographic data suggests a significant divide in support among female voters. Research from BTG/Nexus indicates that Lula maintains a 16-point advantage among women [4]. The same research found that 50% of women reject Flávio Bolsonaro [4].
Other surveys echo these trends. AtlasIntel reported that Lula continues to lead in all dispute scenarios, including both the first and second rounds [3].
"Lula tem 48% das intenções de voto no segundo turno, contra 43% de Flávio Bolsonaro," Datafolha said [2].
"Lula tem 16 pontos de vantagem entre as mulheres, enquanto Flávio Bolsonaro é rejeitado por 50% delas," BTG/Nexus said [4].
"Lula continua liderando todos os cenários de disputa, tanto no primeiro quanto no segundo turno," AtlasIntel said [3].
“Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in recent nationwide voter intention polls”
The polling data suggests that while Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a substantial base of support, he faces a high ceiling of rejection, particularly among women. Lula's lead in both runoff and first-round scenarios indicates a stable core of support, though the single-digit margin in the second round suggests the election remains competitive.
