President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a simulated second-round presidential election poll released Wednesday.

The data provides an early glimpse into the electoral viability of the two candidates as Brazil navigates a polarized political landscape. This matchup pits the current administration's platform against the legacy of the Bolsonaro family.

According to the Quaest poll, Lula maintains 45% of voter intention [1]. In the same simulation, Flávio Bolsonaro holds 37% support [2]. This creates an eight-point gap between the two candidates in a head-to-head scenario.

The survey, also attributed to Genial/Quaest, focuses on the national electorate to determine how voters would behave in a runoff election. The results indicate a higher level of popularity for the sitting president compared to the senator.

Political analysts often view these simulated rounds as a measure of a candidate's "ceiling"—the maximum amount of support they can garner when the field is narrowed. The current gap suggests Lula has a broader base of appeal across the Brazilian electorate at this stage of the cycle.

Flávio Bolsonaro, a key figure in the conservative movement, continues to command a significant portion of the vote but trails the president in this specific measurement. The poll was published on July 15, 2026, reflecting current voter sentiment.

“Lula maintains 45% of voter intention”

The poll indicates that while the conservative base remains strong under Flávio Bolsonaro, President Lula retains a competitive advantage in a two-person race. The eight-point lead suggests that the incumbent is currently better positioned to capture the center or undecided voters, though the margin remains within a range where strategic shifts could influence the final outcome.