President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) are tied in voting scenarios in São Paulo [1].
The results highlight a deep political divide in Brazil's most populous state, which often serves as a bellwether for the national presidential race.
The Datafolha poll, released July 8, indicates a tie for both first-round and second-round scenarios among voters in the state of São Paulo [1]. The survey was conducted between July 1 and July 3 [1]. It relied on 1,608 interviews [1], with a margin of error of ±2 percentage points [1] and a 95% confidence level [1].
These findings contrast with other reports from the same period. While some sources indicate a deadlock, other data suggests a lead for the president. For example, a simulation of a second-round matchup reported by Terra placed Lula at 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40% [2]. Similarly, the BBC reported that Lula led by four points in a second-round simulation [3].
Discrepancies also exist between different polling firms. A separate poll by RealTime Big Data indicated that Lula leads in both first- and second-round scenarios against Flávio Bolsonaro [4].
Confusion regarding the data has led to previous corrections by fact-checkers. In April, Reuters Fact Check said that no poll registered with the Superior Electoral Court showed Lula with 52% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 17% in a first-round scenario [5].
The current race remains volatile as candidates navigate the regional preferences of the São Paulo electorate, a critical demographic for any candidate seeking the presidency.
“Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are tied in both first-round and second-round voting scenarios among voters in the state of São Paulo.”
The conflicting data between Datafolha, RealTime Big Data, and various media reports suggests a highly fragmented electorate in São Paulo. Because the state is a primary economic and political hub, a statistical tie or a narrow lead indicates that neither the incumbent's platform nor the Bolsonaro family's influence has secured a dominant hold on the region's voters as the 2026 election approaches.
