Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) are tied for the lead in São Paulo, according to a new Quaest poll [1].
São Paulo is the most populous state in Brazil and often serves as a critical bellwether for national presidential trends. A deadlock in this region suggests a deeply polarized electorate as the country approaches the first round of the 2026 election.
The poll, which collected data between Aug. 19 and Aug. 25, shows both candidates hovering around 30% of voter intention [2, 3]. Some reports indicate Lula holds 30% [1], while others place him slightly lower at 29% [2].
Flávio Bolsonaro's support similarly fluctuates across reporting sources. While O Globo reports him at 30% [1], SBT News places his intention higher at 34% [4]. This variance underscores the volatility of voter sentiment in the state.
Other candidates trail significantly behind the two frontrunners. The data shows Marçal at four% [5], followed by Ronaldo Caiado at three% [5], and Renan Santos at three% [5]. These figures indicate that the race in São Paulo has largely consolidated around the PT and PL candidates.
The Quaest poll was published on Aug. 25 to gauge early voter intentions for the upcoming presidential cycle [3]. The narrow gap between the leading candidates suggests that neither side has established a dominant hold over the state's diverse voting bloc.
“Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are tied for the lead in São Paulo”
The statistical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in São Paulo reflects the broader national divide between the Workers' Party and the Bolsonaro-aligned right. Because São Paulo carries immense electoral weight, the inability of either candidate to secure a clear lead suggests that the first round may not provide a decisive mandate, potentially pushing the 2026 election toward a high-stakes runoff.
