The southwest monsoon is forecast to dump more than 200 millimeters of rain over Benguet on Monday [1].
Persistent rainfall across Western Luzon and Metro Manila increases the immediate risk of flash floods and landslides. The saturated ground from recent storms makes mountainous regions particularly vulnerable to slope failure as the week begins.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the weather system, known locally as Habagat, will keep much of Luzon water-logged throughout the week [2]. While the monsoon is the primary driver, meteorologists said the rains are also linked to the lingering effects of Tropical Cyclone Kiyapo, also known as Noul, which continues to affect northern Luzon [3].
In northern Luzon, four areas remain under Signal No. 1 due to the cyclone's influence [4]. The combination of the monsoon and the cyclone has already resulted in several areas of western Luzon receiving what is described as a weeks' worth of rain over a five-day period [5].
This surge of precipitation has had a measurable impact on regional infrastructure. Local reports indicate that Luzon dams have recorded record gains in water storage [6], a development that helps long-term water security but requires careful management to prevent dam-related flooding during peak rainfall.
Authorities continue to monitor the situation in Benguet and Metro Manila. The forecast suggests that isolated rains will persist across the Visayas as well, though the heaviest concentrations remain centered on the western coast of Luzon [2].
“Forecasts predict more than 200 mm of rain in Benguet on Monday”
The convergence of the southwest monsoon and the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Kiyapo creates a compounding weather event. When record rainfall occurs over a short window, the primary danger shifts from surface flooding to deep-soil instability, significantly increasing the likelihood of landslides in the Cordillera Administrative Region. The record gains in dam levels provide a critical buffer for the dry season but limit the capacity of reservoirs to absorb further runoff if the rains persist through the week.
