The Makerfield parliamentary by-election is taking place today, June 18, 2026 [1], in a blue-collar town on the outskirts of Manchester.
The contest is viewed as a high-stakes event because a victory for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham could allow him to enter Parliament and challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the Labour party leadership [1, 2].
Burnham is expected to use the seat as a platform to mount a leadership challenge against Starmer [2]. The race is particularly tight due to strong support for Reform UK in the region [2].
Makerfield is located in north-west England and represents a critical demographic for the party's stability. The outcome of the vote will determine if Burnham gains the legislative standing necessary to trigger a formal leadership transition [1, 3].
However, reports on the potential outcome have diverged. While some expectations suggest a Burnham victory, other reports indicate Labour finished third in the by-election [4]. If those reports are accurate, the immediate threat to Starmer's leadership may not materialize as previously anticipated [4].
The tension between the party's current leadership and the ambitions of regional mayors highlights a rift within the Labour party's strategy for maintaining its blue-collar base [3].
“The Makerfield by-election is being billed as a high-stakes contest that could threaten Keir Starmer’s position.”
This by-election serves as a litmus test for Keir Starmer's grip on the Labour party. A victory for Andy Burnham would signal a shift toward the party's more populist or regional wing, whereas a poor showing for Labour—specifically a third-place finish—would suggest a failure to hold traditional working-class seats against the rise of Reform UK.
