Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said businesses have not yet seen measurable productivity gains from artificial intelligence [1].
This assessment is critical because the Federal Reserve monitors productivity to determine how technology influences inflation, wage growth, and overall economic stability. If AI fails to deliver efficiency gains, the expected economic boom from the technology may not materialize as quickly as markets anticipate.
Speaking at a Bloomberg Tech event in San Francisco in May 2024, Daly said there is a gap between the hype surrounding generative AI and the actual economic metrics [1]. While she remains bullish on the potential of the technology, she said the current evidence from businesses does not yet show the anticipated improvements [2].
"Businesses haven’t seen AI productivity gains yet," Daly said during an interview with Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow [1].
The discrepancy between corporate optimism and official statistics is a central theme in her analysis. Daly said that while many leaders discuss the benefits of AI, these claims have not translated into the hard numbers used by economists to track national growth [2].
"Productivity growth is everywhere except in the data," Daly said [2].
Her comments suggest that while the integration of AI into the workplace is underway, the transition period—where employees learn to use the tools and processes are redesigned—may take significant time before the benefits appear in official reports [1].
“Businesses haven’t seen AI productivity gains yet.”
The Federal Reserve's focus on data over anecdote suggests that the 'AI revolution' may have a longer implementation lag than previously thought. For policymakers, the absence of measurable productivity gains means that AI is not yet acting as a deflationary force or a primary driver of GDP growth, regardless of the prevailing corporate sentiment.
