Megyn Kelly said a recent CNN poll collation shows Democrats holding a historically low generic ballot advantage ahead of the U.S. midterm elections [1].

The assessment suggests that the Democratic Party may lack the typical momentum often seen during midterm cycles where the opposing party holds the presidency. This could signal a tighter race than historical trends for Democratic waves would suggest.

Speaking from a Sky News Australia studio during an interview with host Paul Murray, Kelly pointed to data displayed by CNN. She said the collation showed Democrats with only a four-point generic ballot advantage [1].

Kelly characterized this margin as unusually low. She said, "The latest collation of the polls that was put up on the board by CNN was showing that the democrats only have a four-point generic ballot advantage going into these midterms, which is historically very low" [1].

Kelly attributed the narrow margin to the current state of the party's platform. She said, "It’s four because they’re so crazy" [1].

During the discussion, Kelly noted that the party had not yet achieved a significant electoral surge. "They haven’t had a wave yet," Kelly said [1].

The interview took place in early November 2022, coinciding with the final lead-up to the midterm voting period. The generic ballot is a standard polling metric used to gauge the overall preference for a party's candidates across all contested seats, regardless of specific geography.

“"The democrats only have a four-point generic ballot advantage going into these midterms, which is historically very low."”

The generic ballot is a critical predictor of midterm outcomes because it strips away individual candidate popularity to reveal the national mood toward the parties. A four-point lead is significantly narrower than the margins typically seen when a party successfully rides a 'wave' to capture the House or Senate, suggesting a high level of volatility and a potential lack of broad consensus for the Democratic platform in the 2022 cycle.