Mexican meteorological agencies warn that a strong El Niño event will alter rainfall and temperature patterns across the country through winter 2026-2027 [2, 3].
These shifts in atmospheric circulation could disrupt agriculture and infrastructure by bringing heavier rains to some regions while intensifying heat in others.
The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and Comisión Nacional del Agua (CONAGUA) are monitoring the intensification of the phenomenon [1, 2]. This shift is driven by anomalously warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which modifies how air moves across the continent [3, 4].
For the state of Sinaloa, the SMN expects a contrasting behavior regarding rainfall and temperatures between August and October 2026 [1, 5]. The agency said the region may face a trimester of unpredictable weather patterns [1].
Other regions are already seeing high temperatures. In Ciudad Obregón, Sonora, the forecast for Tuesday, Aug. 11, includes a maximum temperature of 36 °C and a minimum of 26 °C [3]. Earlier this summer, Irapuato in Guanajuato recorded a maximum temperature of 28 °C on July 30 [2].
CONAGUA has issued alerts for several states that could be affected as the event strengthens during the second half of 2026 [2, 4]. The agency said Mexico could face a significant change in its climatic behavior during this period [2].
Experts are specifically questioning the potential intensity of the coming winter. The shift is expected to peak during the 2026-2027 season, potentially leading to extreme weather events across the republic [3].
“Mexico could face a significant change in its climatic behavior during the second half of 2026.”
The intensification of El Niño typically disrupts the traditional rainy season in Mexico, often leading to flooding in the south and drought in the north. Because this event is forecasted as 'very strong,' the government's focus on specific states like Sinaloa and Sonora suggests a high risk of agricultural volatility and water management challenges heading into 2027.
