A new U.S. attack on Iran could trigger a major and drastic expansion of the conflict, according to Aaron David Miller [1].
This warning comes as reports indicate President Donald Trump has ordered a fresh round of strikes that could begin as soon as this weekend [1]. The potential escalation threatens to broaden the scope of hostilities beyond the Middle East, particularly if the U.S. and Israel target Iranian energy infrastructure [1].
Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that a limited bombing campaign is unlikely to change Tehran's calculations [1]. He said that such actions would likely provoke the Iranian government and broaden the current conflict [1].
"A new US attack on Iran could trigger a major and drastic expansion of the conflict," Miller said [1].
The risk of escalation centers on the strategic response from Tehran. Miller's assessment suggests that tactical strikes do not necessarily lead to a change in long-term policy or strategic restraint from the Iranian leadership [1]. Instead, such strikes may serve as a catalyst for a wider regional war, one that could impact global energy markets and international security [1].
While some reports have suggested the war could continue indefinitely, Miller focuses on the immediate danger of a sharp, drastic expansion following a direct U.S. military action [1].
“"A new US attack on Iran could trigger a major and drastic expansion of the conflict."”
The warning underscores a fundamental disagreement between military tactical goals and strategic outcomes. If the U.S. pursues limited strikes to signal strength, it may inadvertently create a security dilemma where Iran feels compelled to expand the conflict to maintain its deterrence, potentially drawing in non-regional actors and destabilizing global energy supplies.
