Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) leads the race for governor of Minas Gerais with 29% of voter intention [1].
The results indicate a significant gap between the front-runner and the rest of the field as candidates prepare for the 2026 election. This lead positions Azevedo as the primary candidate to beat in a state that often serves as a political bellwether for Brazil.
The poll, commissioned by Globo and conducted by Quaest, surveyed 1,506 voters [6]. Fieldwork took place between Aug. 21 and Aug. 24 [12]. The survey carries a margin of error of ±3 percentage points [7] and a confidence level of 95% [8].
Following Azevedo, Patrus Ananias (PT) holds 11% support [2], while Alexandre Kalil (PDT) follows closely with 10% [3]. Mateus Simões (PSD) is at seven% [4], and Gabriel holds five% [5]. While some reports suggest Ananias, Kalil, and Simões are tied within the margin of error for second place, the raw numbers show a slight separation.
A simulation of a second-round runoff between the two top candidates shows Azevedo maintaining a strong advantage. In a head-to-head matchup against Kalil, Azevedo leads with 48% compared to 27% for Kalil [10].
The runoff simulation also reveals a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided. Undecided voters account for 15% of the simulation [11], while 10% of respondents indicated they would cast blank or null votes [12].
The survey is registered under number MG-04060/2026 [9].
“Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) leads the race for governor of Minas Gerais with 29% of voter intention”
The current polling suggests a fragmented field where no candidate is close to a first-round victory. Azevedo's dominant lead in both the general poll and the runoff simulation indicates strong name recognition and a consolidated base of support, though the 25% combined rate of undecided and null votes suggests significant volatility before the final election.
