The Morena party lost 22 points [1] in voter intention polls in Chihuahua over several months following internal disputes between party aspirants.
This decline suggests that internal instability within Mexico's dominant party can alienate voters, potentially shifting the political balance in a key northern state.
The drop in support is attributed to friction between internal aspirants Andrea and Cruz. These disputes reportedly reached a level of tension that nearly resulted in physical confrontations [1]. While Morena struggled with unity, the National Action Party (PAN) reportedly voted unanimously for its own candidate [1].
Data regarding the scale of the decline varies by source. One report indicates that Morena's intention of vote plummeted from 27 points to five points [2]. This sharp decrease reflects a period of significant volatility for the party in the region.
However, other data provides a conflicting view of the party's current standing. A separate set of 400 face-to-face and telephone polls conducted between July 25 and July 30, 2026 [3], suggests that Morena continues to lead preferences for the Chihuahua governorship [4].
The discrepancy between these reports highlights a fragmented polling landscape in Chihuahua. While some metrics show a collapse in support due to the Andrea and Cruz rivalry, other recent data indicates the party maintains a lead despite the internal turmoil [4].
“Morena lost 22 points in voter intention polls in Chihuahua over several months.”
The conflicting polling data indicates a high level of volatility in Chihuahua's political climate. If the 22-point drop is accurate, it demonstrates that local party dysfunction can override national brand loyalty. Conversely, if Morena still leads, it suggests the party's base is resilient enough to withstand public internal strife, though the unanimous unity of the PAN presents a disciplined contrast in organizational strategy.
