Nigerian farmers are struggling with rising food production costs driven by a global fertilizer crisis and domestic supply chain pressures [1, 2].

This surge in expenses threatens food security in Nigeria, particularly in Lagos State, as production costs translate into higher prices for consumers. The situation arrives as millions of Nigerians bear the burden of a wider cost-of-living crisis [3].

The All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN) identified several domestic factors contributing to the price hikes [2]. The association said middlemen fees and increasing transportation costs are responsible for raising the expenses farmers face to bring goods to market [2].

Beyond domestic issues, global geopolitical instability has impacted the agricultural sector. The war on Iran has disrupted global fertilizer supplies, which has triggered a supply crisis and further driven up the cost of production for farmers [1].

While AFAN emphasizes the role of middlemen and transport, other reports highlight the external shock of the fertilizer shortage as a primary driver [1, 2]. These combined pressures create a volatile environment for agricultural output, limiting the ability of farmers to maintain previous production levels.

The crisis is felt most acutely in regions like Lagos State, where the intersection of high transport costs and reduced fertilizer availability complicates the local food supply [1, 2].

“Millions of Nigerians are bearing the burden of the cost-of-living crisis”

The convergence of international conflict and domestic inefficiency is creating a compounding effect on Nigeria's food inflation. By linking global fertilizer shortages to local logistics failures, the crisis demonstrates how geopolitical instability can directly impact food security in developing economies through both input costs and distribution bottlenecks.