The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Thursday that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will see below-average tropical activity [1].
This projection provides critical early warning for coastal communities and emergency management agencies. A quieter season may reduce the immediate risk of catastrophic landfalls, but forecasters said that individual storms can still cause significant damage regardless of overall activity levels.
The forecast period runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, 2026 [2]. NOAA predicts that between eight and 14 named storms will form in the Atlantic basin during this window [3]. This range is lower than typical historical averages, reflecting a shift in atmospheric conditions.
Forecasters said the predicted decline in activity is due to an emerging and persistent El Niño [1]. This climate pattern typically increases vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, which disrupts the organization of thunderstorms and suppresses the formation of tropical cyclones [4].
While some reports describe the season as strictly below-average, other data suggests activity could land in the near-to-below-average range [2, 3]. Despite these variations, the prevailing atmospheric drivers suggest a less active environment than in previous years [4].
Local governments are encouraged to maintain their readiness protocols. Even in a below-average season, the intensity of a single storm can outweigh the total number of systems that develop during the year [1].
“NOAA predicts that between eight and 14 named storms will form in the Atlantic basin”
The shift toward a below-average season is primarily a result of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. By increasing wind shear, El Niño acts as a natural brake on hurricane development. For the US and Caribbean, this suggests a lower statistical probability of multiple major hurricanes, though it does not eliminate the risk of high-intensity events occurring.
