The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared on June 11, 2026 [1], that El Niño has begun and is forecast to intensify.

This development is significant because a "Super" El Niño — a very strong version of the climate pattern [2] — can trigger extreme weather shifts across the globe. These changes often disrupt agriculture, water supplies, and disaster preparedness in multiple hemispheres.

NOAA issued the declaration after sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific rose above the threshold that defines an El Niño event [1, 4]. Forecasters said this specific cycle is expected to be particularly intense, leading to a classification of a very strong or "Super" El Niño [2].

Impacts are expected to be felt worldwide, with specific regional concerns already noted. In the U.S., forecasters are monitoring potential storms and increased rainfall in the Bay Area of California [3]. Other regions, such as Colorado, are also expected to see shifts in their typical weather systems [3].

The phenomenon occurs when warm water accumulates in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, altering the atmospheric circulation above it [4]. This shift pushes rain-bearing weather patterns away from their usual paths, creating a domino effect of droughts in some areas and flooding in others.

Meteorologists will continue to monitor the Pacific to determine the peak intensity and duration of the event. Because this is forecast as a very strong event, the global community may face more volatile weather than during standard El Niño cycles [2, 5].

“El Niño has officially begun and is forecast to intensify into a very strong or “Super” El Niño.”

A Super El Niño represents a high-magnitude climate disruption that typically correlates with higher global average temperatures and redirected jet streams. For the U.S. and other nations, this means a higher probability of extreme precipitation in some regions and severe drought in others, potentially stressing global food security and infrastructure.