The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a watch for the return of El Niño in 2026 [2].
This shift in Pacific climate patterns is critical because it typically triggers hotter global temperatures and alters precipitation. For regions like Morocco, these changes can exacerbate already fragile water conditions and renew severe drought risks [1, 4].
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and other forecasters estimate a 61% probability [3] that El Niño will emerge between May and July 2026 [3]. The agency officially issued the El Niño watch on April 9, 2026 [2]. While some reports suggest the phenomenon will arrive in the second half of the year, NOAA data focuses on the mid-year window [1, 3].
Meteorologists are monitoring the transition from the current La Niña phase. Michelle L'Heureux said, "Sea surface temperatures are gradually weakening, and we're close to our threshold for the return of ENSO-neutral conditions" [5].
Some forecasters have flagged the possibility of a "super" El Niño scenario [4]. Such an event would intensify the warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, potentially leading to more extreme weather disruptions worldwide [4].
In Morocco, the return of El Niño is viewed as a significant threat to water security [1]. The country has struggled with persistent water scarcity, and the altered rain patterns associated with El Niño often reduce precipitation in North Africa [1, 4].
“NOAA data focuses on the mid-year window.”
The transition from La Niña to El Niño represents a systemic shift in global heat distribution. For Morocco, this is not merely a weather event but a socio-economic risk, as the predicted drought conditions could strain agricultural output and municipal water reserves in a region already facing chronic water stress.
