Jeff Currie, co-chairman of Abaxx Markets, said Monday that the global oil market deficit could turn into a full-blown shortage within weeks [1].
This warning comes as energy markets face a volatile combination of dwindling stockpiles and escalating political instability. A sudden shift from a deficit to a shortage could trigger sharp price increases and disrupt energy security for importing nations.
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe program on May 18, 2026 [2], Currie said the current market deficit and low global oil inventories are primary drivers of the risk [1]. He said that the narrow margin between supply and demand leaves the global economy vulnerable to any further disruptions.
While some market analysts focus on the structural deficit and inventory levels [1], other strategists link the potential for a shortage to geopolitical supply shocks [3]. Specifically, tensions related to the Iran war and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are cited as critical risk factors that could accelerate the crisis [3].
Low inventories mean that there is little buffer to absorb unexpected outages. If a significant supply shock occurs, the market may not have the capacity to compensate, potentially leading to a rapid spike in crude prices [3].
Currie said the timeline for this transition could be as short as a few weeks [1]. This timeframe underscores the urgency for policymakers and energy firms to evaluate their contingency plans as the gap between available oil and global demand continues to tighten.
“The global oil market deficit could turn into a full-blown shortage within weeks.”
The convergence of low inventories and geopolitical instability in the Middle East creates a high-risk environment for energy prices. If a shortage materializes, it would likely lead to inflationary pressure on global transport and manufacturing costs, potentially forcing central banks to reconsider economic growth projections in the face of an energy-driven price shock.
