Global oil prices have remained below $150 a barrel [1] despite five months of conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.
The stability of these prices contradicts early market forecasts that predicted a severe energy crisis. Because oil is a primary driver of global inflation, the failure of prices to spike significantly prevents a broader economic shock during the ongoing hostilities.
The war began at the end of February 2026 [4]. In the months following the outbreak, analysts expressed concern that the disruption of Middle Eastern supply chains would send crude costs soaring. Some analysts predicted prices could hit $150 per barrel [3] when the Strait of Hormuz was shut, while other forecasts suggested oil could rise as high as $200 per barrel [2].
Energy editor Dmitry Zhdannikov said the predictions did not materialize. A critical factor was the status of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil shipments. Supply concerns eased significantly after the Strait of Hormuz reopened in June 2026 [6].
This reopening reduced the immediate pressure on crude prices, allowing the market to absorb the volatility of the five-month conflict [5]. The lack of a sustained blockade meant that the global supply remained more resilient than many market observers had anticipated at the start of the war.
Market participants continue to monitor the region, but the current pricing trend suggests that the initial fears of a total energy shutdown were overstated. The resilience of the supply chain has so far prevented the extreme price surges that analysts feared would accompany a direct military confrontation in the region.
“Global oil prices have remained below $150 a barrel despite five months of conflict”
The disparity between predicted and actual oil prices suggests that global energy markets have become more adaptable or that the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz was overestimated in terms of immediate price impact. By avoiding a price spike toward $200, the global economy has avoided a secondary crisis of hyper-inflation, though the underlying geopolitical instability remains a long-term risk to energy security.
