The far-right One Nation party has seen a surge in national polling and a victory in the Farrer by-election [1, 2].
This shift suggests a growing disconnect between Australian voters and the country's major political parties. The momentum indicates that a significant portion of the electorate is seeking alternatives to the traditional Labor and Coalition platforms.
One Nation secured a win in the federal electorate of Farrer in New South Wales during May 2024 [2]. This victory was followed by a national poll released June 1, 2024, where the party led for the first time [3]. Analysts said these results are a direct response to voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent Labor government's budget measures [3].
Shadow Energy Minister Dan Tehan addressed the trend, noting that the shift in support serves as a wake-up call for the political establishment. "The recent One Nation polling surge reminds the major parties of the work they must do to win back the trust and respect of Australian voters," Tehan said [1].
The rise of the party is being framed as a warning to both Labor and the Coalition. The results in Farrer and the subsequent national polling suggest that voters are increasingly frustrated with the perceived failures of the major parties to address core concerns [2, 3].
Political observers said that the party's growth is tied to broader discontent with government spending and policy directions. By capturing a seat in a by-election and leading in national polls, One Nation has positioned itself as a primary vehicle for those feeling ignored by the political center [2, 3].
“The recent One Nation polling surge reminds the major parties of the work they must do”
The rise of One Nation reflects a global trend of voters migrating toward populist and far-right alternatives when they perceive the political center as unresponsive to economic or social grievances. In the Australian context, the party's ability to translate polling momentum into a tangible by-election win suggests that the major parties may face a more fragmented parliament if they cannot effectively address the specific budget and trust issues driving this shift.
