New opinion polling shows the One Nation party is gaining ground among Australian women and leading on primary votes [1].
This shift suggests a change in the political landscape as a long-standing populist movement finds new resonance with a demographic that has historically been more elusive.
According to a poll of 1,005 respondents conducted from May 25 to May 28, 2024, One Nation reached a 31% primary vote [1]. This represents an increase of four percentage points since late April [1]. The surge places the party ahead of the Labor party, which holds 28% of the primary vote after a three percentage point drop [1].
Other major political entities also saw declines in the same period. The Coalition's primary vote fell two percentage points to 20% [1], while the Greens dropped one percentage point to 12% [1]. Combined support for other parties rose by two percentage points to 9% [1].
Commentators suggest the rise is linked to how women perceive party leader Pauline Hanson. Sky News contributor Karalee Katsambanis said women relate to the plain language and motherly image Hanson projects. She said Hanson has remained consistent for 30 years and women are realizing that what she is saying is true.
Katsambanis said Hanson is a mother herself and speaks in a manner that resonates with the experiences of many women over the last two decades. This perceived credibility has allowed the party to bridge a gap with female voters who may now find her long-standing messages more believable.
One Nation's current trajectory indicates a consolidation of support that challenges the traditional dominance of the Labor and Coalition parties in the primary vote stage [1].
“One Nation reached a 31% primary vote”
The rise of One Nation to the top of the primary vote suggests a growing dissatisfaction with Australia's major political parties. By successfully appealing to women through a combination of 'plain-language' communication and a consistent long-term platform, the party is expanding its base beyond its traditional core, potentially altering the electoral math for future contests.
