The One Nation party entered the Nepean by-election in Victoria, challenging the incumbent Liberal Party in a traditionally conservative stronghold [1, 2].
This move signals a strategic attempt by One Nation to test its electoral appeal within a demographic typically loyal to the Liberal Party. By contesting a seat where analysts saw low odds of success, the party sought to measure its ability to disrupt the right-wing primary vote [1, 2].
Analysts had not anticipated the party's entry into the race. Kos Samaras, director of strategy and analysis at the Redbridge Group, said he was a little bit surprised that they decided to contest the seat [1].
Samaras noted that the electorate did not appear to be a natural fit for the party's platform. "It’s not a seat that I thought from the very beginning would be a good seat for One Nation to contest," Samaras said [1].
Despite these expectations, One Nation managed to carve into the Liberal Party's primary vote [1, 3]. While the Liberal Party ultimately retained the seat, the presence of One Nation forced a shift in the distribution of votes among conservative leaning voters [3].
The decision to run in Nepean reflects a broader effort by One Nation to expand its footprint in regional and suburban Victoria, a region where political allegiances are often deeply entrenched [2].
“One Nation entered the Nepean by-election, carving into the Liberal Party’s primary vote.”
The entry of One Nation into the Nepean by-election demonstrates a willingness to challenge the Liberal Party's hegemony in conservative strongholds. Even without winning the seat, the party's ability to siphon primary votes suggests a potential fragmentation of the right-wing vote in Victoria, which could influence future electoral strategies for both parties.
